How hard is it to actually ballot a BTO flat? This tracker follows HDB application (subscription) rates across 8 Build-To-Order exercises. A subscription rate of 31.3× means 31.3 applicants chased every flat. The most contested launch on record was Queenstown Bayfront in October 2024 BTO, at 31.3× for 2-Room Flexi (first-timers). Below we rank the most oversubscribed launches, then break competition down by flat type, applicant category and exercise.
Most oversubscribed BTO launches
Final subscription rates after ballot close — applicants per flat. Small 2-room Flexi allocations in mature estates routinely top the table because supply is tiny and demand from singles and downsizers is high.
| # | Project | Town | Flat type | Applicants | Subscription | Exercise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Queenstown Bayfront | Queenstown | 2-Room Flexi | First-timer | 31.3× | October 2024 BTO |
| 2 | Marine Parade Vista | Marine Parade | 2-Room Flexi | First-timer | 28.0× | October 2025 BTO |
| 3 | Bishan Wave | Bishan | 2-Room Flexi | First-timer | 26.4× | February 2025 BTO |
| 4 | Tampines Boulevard | Tampines | 2-Room Flexi | First-timer | 25.3× | February 2025 BTO |
| 5 | Bedok Reservoir Edge | Bedok | 2-Room Flexi | First-timer | 24.7× | October 2025 BTO |
| 6 | Bukit Merah Crest | Bukit Merah | 2-Room Flexi | First-timer | 23.7× | October 2025 BTO |
| 7 | Kallang Horizon View | Kallang/whampoa | 2-Room Flexi | First-timer | 23.1× | October 2024 BTO |
| 8 | Tengah Plantation Verge | Tengah | 2-Room Flexi | First-timer | 22.8× | October 2024 BTO |
| 9 | Sembawang Crescent | Sembawang | 2-Room Flexi | First-timer | 22.4× | October 2025 BTO |
| 10 | Sengkang Plains | Sengkang | 2-Room Flexi | First-timer | 22.4× | October 2024 BTO |
| 11 | Yishun Ridge | Yishun | 2-Room Flexi | First-timer | 22.2× | October 2024 BTO |
| 12 | Hougang Citrine | Hougang | 2-Room Flexi | First-timer | 22.1× | February 2024 BTO |
First-timer vs second-timer odds
Average subscription rate by applicant category and flat type. Second-timers almost always face steeper odds because HDB reserves the bulk of supply for first-timer families.
| Flat type | First-timer | Second-timer | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Room Flexi | 19.5× | 1.4× | -18.1× |
| 3-Room | 6.1× | 0.9× | -5.2× |
| 4-Room | 7.0× | 2.4× | -4.5× |
| 5-Room | 3.7× | 1.6× | -2.1× |
Competition by exercise
Average and peak first-timer subscription rate for each BTO exercise, alongside the number of flats launched. Larger launches with more supply tend to ease average competition.
| Exercise | Units launched | Avg subscription | Peak subscription |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 2021 BTO | 3,800 | 8.0× | 18.4× |
| May 2022 BTO | 4,700 | 8.2× | 20.9× |
| August 2023 BTO | 5,160 | 8.1× | 19.8× |
| February 2024 BTO | 4,126 | 8.5× | 22.1× |
| June 2024 BTO | 6,800 | 8.7× | 21.0× |
| October 2024 BTO | 8,573 | 10.5× | 31.3× |
| February 2025 BTO | 5,032 | 9.4× | 26.4× |
| October 2025 BTO | 8,941 | 10.8× | 28.0× |
Use the HDB grant and affordability calculators to size your budget before you pick a launch — and read our BTO project previews for amenity and price context.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a BTO subscription rate?
It is the number of applications received for each flat offered in a BTO exercise. A subscription rate of 5× means five applicants competed for every flat, so roughly one in five ballots secured a queue number. Rates above 10× signal very tight competition.
Which BTO project was the most oversubscribed?
Across the 8 exercises tracked, Queenstown Bayfront recorded the highest rate at 31.3× for 2-Room Flexi (first-timers). The full leaderboard is above.
Why are 2-room Flexi flats so competitive?
Supply of 2-room Flexi units is small, and they attract both singles (who are largely restricted to this type) and elderly downsizers on short leases. Limited supply plus broad demand pushes their subscription rates well above larger flat types.
Do these odds apply to the next launch?
Not directly — each exercise depends on its own town, flat mix and supply. But the patterns here (mature estates and small flats run hot; large OCR launches ease) are a useful prior. Pair this tracker with the launch calendar to plan which exercise to ballot.
Methodology & Sources
This analysis covers HDB BTO ballot results and refreshes on an irregular schedule.
HDB resale and rental data from data.gov.sg.
- Subscription rate = applications ÷ flats offered, using HDB's final post-ballot figures (is_final) across all tracked exercises.
- First-timer and second-timer rates are reported separately because HDB allocates a quota to each; first-timer demand is usually the binding constraint.
- The tracker is evergreen and refreshes as new BTO exercises and ballot results are recorded.
Median values used to minimise outlier impact. PSF = price per square foot.