2009 vs 2011 purchase cohort in D9: the purchase timing gap
入力
- District
- D9 — Orchard / River Valley
- Cohorts compared
- 2009 purchase year vs 2011 purchase year
- Metric
- Annualised nominal return at resale (all holding periods)
結果
- D9 2009 cohort median return
- +9.8% annualised (5-year typical hold)
- D9 2011 cohort median return
- +1.2% annualised (5-year typical hold)
- D9 2011 cohort 25th percentile
- −1.4% annualised (losing-money band)
- Return difference from 2yr timing gap
- 8.6 percentage points per year
これの読み方: Two years of purchase timing in the same district — 2009 vs 2011 — produced an 8.6 percentage point gap in median annualised returns over a 5-year hold. The 2009 buyer entered near the trough; the 2011 buyer entered near the peak of that cycle. After 5 years, the 2009 buyer had compounded at 9.8% per year; the 2011 buyer at 1.2%. The 25th percentile for the 2011 cohort is actually negative — meaning roughly 25% of 2011 D9 buyers lost money nominally over 5 years. This historical data contextualises the importance of current-cycle positioning: buyers entering D9 at relative value versus those entering at cycle highs face very different return distributions.