Velocidade do mercado

Analise a rapidez com que as propriedades estão sendo vendidas e alugadas em vários segmentos, distritos e tipos de propriedades.

1 Foco
2 Preferências
3 Período

Foco no mercado

Escolha quais mercados e segmentos analisar.

CCR
RCR
OCR

Preferências de propriedade

Restrinja sua análise pelas características da propriedade.

Período de tempo

Selecione a janela de análise e a base de comparação.

Como usar a velocidade de vendas

Principais conclusões

  • Este consultor faz algumas perguntas curtas e retorna uma recomendação personalizada.
  • Todos os cálculos são executados no seu navegador – nenhum dado é armazenado ou enviado a terceiros.
  • Execute novamente o orientador com entradas diferentes para comparar cenários lado a lado.

O que isso faz

The Sales Velocity Advisor analyses how quickly units are selling in a selected new launch development — expressed as monthly absorption rate (units sold per month), percentage of total units sold, estimated months-to-sellout at the current pace, and a velocity rating (Hot / Healthy / Moderate / Slow) benchmarked against comparable projects in the same segment and period. You select a project from the new launch database, and the advisor fetches the URA developer sales data to compute: units launched, units sold to date, take-up rate, 3-month rolling average monthly sales, and the deviation of this project's velocity from the median velocity for recent launches in the same segment (CCR/RCR/OCR) and bedroom mix. A heat chart shows monthly unit sales over the project's launch history so you can see whether momentum is building, steady, or fading.

You can find the Sales Velocity Advisor on ShiokNest under the Advisor tab or linked from individual new launch project pages. Data is sourced from URA's monthly developer sales statistics, refreshed after each monthly URA release. The velocity rating uses a rolling 6-month comparable group of launches in the same segment to ensure the benchmark is current — a "Healthy" rating in Q1 2022 (a hot market) implies a different absolute pace than "Healthy" in Q3 2024 (a cooler market). This advisor pairs with the New Launch Advisor for pricing context and the Transaction Volume Insight for the broad market backdrop.

Por que é importante

Sales velocity is the single best real-time signal of a new launch's demand quality — and it is information that developers and agents control tightly. An agent selling a new launch will describe every project as "selling fast" and "very popular." The Sales Velocity Advisor replaces this with objective URA data: how many units actually transacted in each month versus how many were available. A project that sold 80% of units in the first 3 months is a genuinely high-demand launch. A project at 35% take-up after 18 months is absorbing slowly despite marketing claims — and slow absorption almost always means the developer will need to discount or hold prices flat to clear inventory.

The most actionable use of velocity data is the buy-now vs wait decision. For a genuinely high-velocity launch (Hot rating, 50%+ units sold in first 3 months), the strategic advice is to buy early — high-demand projects historically do not offer discounts, and the remaining units will be less desirable stack positions. For a slow-velocity launch (Slow rating, below 25% take-up after 12 months), the strategic advice is to wait — developers facing inventory pressure typically offer enhanced buyer incentives (stamp duty rebates, deferred payment schemes, furniture vouchers) in months 12–24, and occasionally lower outright prices for remaining units. Knowing which regime a project is in tells you whether urgency is real or manufactured.

The velocity trajectory — whether monthly sales are accelerating, steady, or decelerating — is as important as the current take-up rate. A project at 40% take-up after 6 months with accelerating monthly sales (uptick in months 5–6) has a different profile than one at 40% take-up with decelerating sales (months 5–6 slower than months 1–4). The heat chart on the velocity advisor makes this trajectory immediately visible. A decelerating project at 40% after 6 months is likely to end up with unsold inventory requiring developer remediation — which is a risk for early buyers who assumed the project would sell out and validate their entry price through the sub-sale market.

For sellers of comparable completed developments nearby, the velocity of new launches in the same district is a pricing signal. When a new launch is selling Hot in D14, the secondary market for comparable completed developments in D14 typically strengthens — buyers who miss the new launch turn to resale. When a nearby new launch is selling Slow, it often creates downward price pressure on secondary market comparables as the developer's unsold inventory competes directly with resale listings. Owners in completed D14 developments should monitor new launch velocity in their district and time resale listings to align with periods of strong new launch demand — when buyers are in the market and competition from developer inventory is limited. Pair with the Top Movers Insight to see if nearby completed developments are already responding to new launch demand signals.

Como funciona

  • Responda cada pergunta honestamente – a recomendação é tão boa quanto as contribuições.
  • Revise o detalhamento da pontuação ponderada para entender por que cada opção está classificada onde está.
  • Clique nas calculadoras ou insights vinculados para se aprofundar em qualquer fator.
  • Execute novamente com entradas diferentes para ver quão sensível a recomendação é para cada resposta.

Exemplos

Hot-velocity OCR launch: buy early or miss the preferred stacks

Entradas
Project
OCR new launch, D19, 550 units total
Launch date
Month 1
Units sold
418 of 550 (76%) by end of Month 3
Velocity rating
Hot — 3× OCR median absorption rate
Resultados
Monthly absorption rate
139 units/month (Month 1–3 average)
OCR segment median
46 units/month (comparable launches)
Remaining units
132 (mostly higher floors, smaller stacks)
Estimated months to sellout
~1.0 months at current pace
Advisor recommendation
High urgency — preferred stacks already gone

Como ler isso: A 76% take-up in 3 months is a genuine demand signal — not marketing language. The advisor confirms the 3× median absorption rate and flags that the remaining 132 units are likely the less-preferred stack positions (north-facing, lower floors, or smaller layouts), because buyers select the best units first. For a buyer who was watching this project and delayed by 2 months, the choice is now to accept a less-preferred unit or pass. The velocity data makes this trade-off objective: "preferred units are gone" is a conclusion drawn from take-up data, not sales pressure. A buyer who waited expecting a price reduction on a Hot project like this would typically be disappointed — Hot-velocity projects do not need to discount.

Slow-velocity RCR launch at Month 18: waiting for buyer incentives

Entradas
Project
RCR new launch, D3, 320 units total
Launch date
18 months ago
Units sold
118 of 320 (36.9%) at month 18
Velocity rating
Slow — 0.4× RCR median absorption rate
Resultados
Monthly absorption (M1–6)
12 units/month (early burst)
Monthly absorption (M13–18)
3 units/month (fading momentum)
Remaining units
202 (63% of project unsold)
Estimated months to sellout
67 months at current pace
Developer incentive history
Early bird discount expired M3; no new incentives yet

Como ler isso: At 37% take-up after 18 months with decelerating monthly sales, this project has stalled. The developer has 202 units representing a substantial capital commitment earning no return. Based on comparable slow-velocity RCR projects, the advisor projects a 65–75% probability that buyer incentives (ABSD absorption, stamp duty rebates, enhanced furniture packages, or direct price reductions) will be introduced within the next 3–6 months to stimulate absorption. A buyer who has been watching this project but not buying has created the right position: the inventory overhang guarantees negotiating leverage in the near term. The advisor recommends monitoring and notes the current list price is effectively the ceiling, not the floor, for this project.

Dicas e armadilhas

Dicas de especialistas

  • Execute o consultor duas vezes – uma vez com suposições de melhor caso, uma vez com suposições de pior caso – para ver toda a gama de resultados.
  • Combine a recomendação com a calculadora relevante abaixo para obter detalhes do nível do dólar.
  • Compartilhe o resultado com seu cônjuge ou planejador financeiro antes de assumir um grande compromisso.

Armadilhas Comuns

  • Tratar a pontuação como uma previsão – é uma estrutura de decisão, não uma previsão.
  • Ignorando fatores fora do modelo – frequência escolar, planos familiares e adequação ao estilo de vida não são pontuados aqui.
  • Ponderar excessivamente uma única entrada – altere uma resposta e veja quanto a pontuação se move antes de confiar nela.

Perguntas frequentes

Meus dados estão salvos?
Não. Todos os cálculos do consultor são executados inteiramente no seu navegador. Nada é armazenado em nossos servidores ou compartilhado com terceiros.
Quão precisa é a recomendação?
O consultor usa pontuação ponderada transparente com base em heurísticas padrão do setor. É uma ferramenta de apoio à decisão e não de aconselhamento financeiro – verifique sempre com um profissional licenciado.
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Isenção de responsabilidade: Este consultor é uma ferramenta de apoio à decisão e não é um aconselhamento financeiro, jurídico ou fiscal. Sempre verifique os resultados com um profissional licenciado antes de se comprometer com uma transação imobiliária.