Two months into Q2 2026, Singapore’s ultra-luxury segment is showing tentative signs of a thaw rather than a breakout. With Q1 2026 confirming six consecutive quarters of overall private price growth (+0.9% qoq) and the Core Central Region clawing back to +0.6% after a brutal -3.5% in Q4 2025, the question through May 2026 is whether the trophy tier follows. GCB caveats stayed steady at 13 deals totalling S$371 million in H2 2025; H1 2026 looks set to extend that range, with at least one ongoing Peirce Road transaction reportedly near S$148 million pointing to deepening trophy-asset conviction (as of 2026-05). For Q2 2026 to confirm a turn, we need to see ultra-luxury condo volumes (S$10M+) hold above the 24-unit Q1 2025 base and CCR caveat counts recover from Q1 2026’s 40% qoq transaction slump.
Singapore’s ultra-luxury market enters mid-2026 in an unusual configuration: the headline price index is rising for the sixth consecutive quarter, yet transaction volumes just posted their lowest quarterly count in nearly two years. According to the URA Q1 2026 real estate statistics release, only approximately 4,041 private residential transactions were recorded through mid-March 2026 — a 39.7% quarter-on-quarter drop from the 6,699 recorded in Q4 2025. The Core Central Region, home to virtually all S$10M+ condominium activity, was revised upward from a +0.4% flash to +0.6% final — modest, but a meaningful recovery from the punishing -3.5% it suffered in Q4 2025 (as of 2026-04).
The macro backdrop for Q2 2026 is genuinely transitional. The April 2023 doubling of ABSD on foreign purchasers from 30% to 60% has now been in force for three years — long enough that the structural absence of foreign demand at scale is a permanent feature, not a temporary shock. The remaining question is whether domestic ultra-high-net-worth buyers, augmented by an expanding family-office ecosystem, can sustain transaction velocity in the S$10M+ tier on their own. Two months into Q2 2026, the early evidence suggests yes for trophy assets, but the broader CCR remains thin (as of 2026-05).
Quarterly snapshot of Singapore's $10M+ property market — GCB landed plus ultra-luxury condos.
The most informative single data point through May 2026 is the GCB pipeline. H2 2025 closed with 13 caveated GCB deals totalling S$371 million, a figure that on a per-deal basis (~S$28.5M average) was structurally similar to the prior comparable period. The top H2 2025 lodged caveat was a S$55 million Chee Hoon Avenue bungalow in August, and a separate Second Avenue transaction at S$53 million was reported for September 2025 to the CEO of SingHaiyi Group. The most consequential ongoing deal is a Peirce Road GCB reportedly in the process of changing hands at approximately S$148 million — if it caveats in Q2 2026, it will be the largest individual GCB transaction since the 2021–2022 peak and a strong signal that trophy-tier conviction has returned (as of 2026-05).
For ultra-luxury condominiums, Q1 2026 caveat data showed the highest single resale was at The Marq on Paterson Hill at S$37 million in January 2026. This is a meaningful benchmark: while not the eye-watering trades of 2021–2022, it confirms that depths of S$30M+ resale appetite exist for irreplaceable trophy units in District 9. The CCR super-luxury PSF peak of S$6,613 set in Q2 2025 has not been retested year-to-date, but neither has it broken — suggesting a price plateau rather than a roll-over (as of 2026-05).
The bigger Q1 2026 narrative was the transaction-volume slump that did not translate into price weakness. Total private residential transactions of approximately 4,041 in Q1 2026 were the lowest quarterly count in nearly two years, down 39.7% qoq from 6,699 in Q4 2025. Yet the URA price index revisions were uniformly stronger than the flash: overall private home prices revised from +0.3% to +0.9%, OCR from +1.3% to +2.2%, CCR from +0.4% to +0.6%, RCR slightly weaker from +0.9% to +0.8%. Per the URA Q1 2026 flash release, this is the sixth consecutive quarter of growth in the private residential price index. A market that can hold price strength on 40% lower transaction volume is, by definition, a market where holders are not distressed sellers (as of 2026-04).
For the S$10M+ specifically: Q1 2025 recorded 24 ultra-luxury condo transactions (>S$10M) in the CCR, more than triple the depressed 7-unit Q1 2024 base. Q1 2026 caveat data through January suggests continued activity, with the S$37M Marq deal as the headline anchor. To confirm Q2 2026 as a continuation of normalisation rather than a relapse, the segment needs to deliver at least 5–8 S$10M+ CCR condo caveats per month through April–June 2026. Through May 2026, anecdotal evidence and the Peirce Road GCB pipeline are consistent with this base case but do not yet definitively confirm it (as of 2026-05).
One structural tailwind worth flagging: the Singapore family-office ecosystem continues to expand. According to MAS’s annual reporting, Section 13O and 13U single-family offices continue to be approved at a steady pace, with a stated industry CAGR projection of approximately 8.5% through 2030 driven by rising Asia-Pacific UHNW wealth. While Singapore residential property is specifically excluded from the definition of “designated investments” for 13O/13U tax exemption purposes (a deliberate policy choice to prevent artificial inflation), the principals behind these structures often acquire residential trophy assets in their personal capacity as Singapore Citizens or Permanent Residents — tiers which face 20%–35% ABSD on second-and-beyond properties rather than the 60% foreign rate. This indirect channel is, in our reading, the primary engine that has held the GCB market firm through 2024–2025 and into 2026 (as of 2026-05).
- Singapore Citizen or PR considering a trophy GCB: Q2 2026 conditions remain favourable. The buyer pool is structurally narrow (you, plus a handful of other Singapore-tier purchasers), competition for any listed asset is lower than in 2021–2022, and seller psychology has had three years to adjust to the post-ABSD reality. The pipeline of large deals (Peirce Road at ~S$148M ongoing) confirms the segment is functional, not frozen. Use the Stamp Duty calculator to size BSD on S$10M+ entry (BSD alone runs S$600K+) and review the GCB investment guide for structuring (as of 2026-05).
- Foreign national or entity: The 60% ABSD remains effectively prohibitive. A S$15M condo carries S$9M in stamp duty alone — equivalent to losing the first six years of any plausible appreciation upfront. Three years of post-2023 data confirm that this is not a temporary measure that will be reversed soon. Q2 2026 does not change this calculus. Unless qualifying for FTA-based ABSD remission (US, Switzerland, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway under specific conditions), allocate to other luxury markets or to Singapore commercial property where ABSD does not apply. The District 9 overview and District 10 overview provide baseline pricing context if you do qualify (as of 2026-05).
- Family office principal: The 13O/13U tax exemption explicitly excludes Singapore residential property from designated investments, but the principals behind these structures often acquire trophy GCBs or luxury condos in their personal capacity. Q2 2026 is a sensible window to execute on this strategy: the segment is liquid enough to transact but not so competitive that you overpay. The family office property strategy guide covers the approved structures, and the luxury property map shows current GCB activity geography. Tax planning must precede transaction commitment, not follow it (as of 2026-05).
- Passive investor benchmarking: The Q1 2026 CCR price reading of +0.6% qoq, six consecutive quarters of overall growth, looks reassuring but understates volatility at the asset level. Gross rental yields in the ultra-luxury segment remain structurally sub-2%, so capital appreciation drives nearly all of total return. With volumes 40% below recent normal, holding-period risk is elevated — you may need 5–7 years to exit cleanly rather than 2–3. Stress-test acquisitions with the ROI calculator and review the holding returns insight tool under flat, +3%, and -3% annual scenarios before committing to any S$10M+ deal in Q2 2026 (as of 2026-05).
- Establish your all-in cost baseline before engaging agents. At S$10M+, BSD plus legal plus due diligence routinely totals S$650K+ even before any ABSD layer. Run the Stamp Duty calculator and the Total Cost of Purchase calculator with realistic Q2 2026 entry prices. Cash-flow modelling is non-negotiable at this tier — entering negotiations without it is amateur.
- Monitor URA REALIS weekly through Q2 2026. The URA REALIS portal publishes caveated transactions with a typical 2–3 week lag. Filter Districts 9, 10, 11 and Sentosa for any units transacting above S$10M to reconstruct the Q2 2026 deal list in real time. Cross-reference against SLA title searches to identify off-market GCB transactions not captured in caveats — historically ~60% of GCB activity by value is off-market.
- Prioritise GCB area-specific intelligence. Singapore’s 39 gazetted GCB areas have meaningfully different planning controls, lot-size minimums, and covenant overlaps. The Q2 2026 trophy pipeline is concentrated in District 10 (Nassim, Cluny, Peirce). Read the dedicated profiles for Nassim Road, Cluny Park, and Holland Park before shortlisting areas, then verify planning parameters with URA’s Master Plan map.
- Benchmark against district price trends, not headline deals. Single trophy trades like the rumoured Peirce Road S$148M deal are highly idiosyncratic and skew per-district averages. Use the GCB price trend article for the longer-run per-district psf trajectory to calibrate whether a Q2 2026 asking price is at premium or discount to trend. Avoid anchoring solely to the most-publicised numbers.
- Quantify the freehold vs. 999-year leasehold differential. Many of Singapore’s most coveted GCB areas are 999-year leasehold rather than freehold. At S$15M+ entry, even a modest residual-value differential compounds materially over a 30–40 year holding period. Use the Lease Decay calculator to model the impact under realistic discount rates before committing.
- Engage a CEA-registered specialist with verifiable trophy-tier track record. The Q2 2026 GCB market remains relationship-driven, and off-market access is the single biggest source of value-add. Caveat data alone understates the true opportunity set by approximately 60%. The buyer advisor flow can surface agents with relevant district and transaction-tier experience. Validate every claimed track record against URA REALIS before signing any exclusive arrangement.
The optimistic Q2 2026 read — that GCBs are firm, trophy condos still find buyers, and the family-office ecosystem provides a structural floor — has a credible bear case. Q1 2026’s 39.7% qoq transaction slump is unusually steep, and while the headline price index held up, this could be the same compositional artefact that distorted Q1 2024 readings: when cautious buyers exit, the cheapest transactions disappear first, mechanically lifting the average. Under this view, the Q1 2026 CCR price reading of +0.6% is masking an underlying weakness that will become visible if Q2 2026 sees forced sellers from any source — refinancing pressure as 2021–2022 mortgages reset, succession-driven divestments, or family-office unwinds. The historical base rate for a 40% qoq volume slump translating into eventual price weakness within two to three quarters is non-trivial (as of 2026-05).
Furthermore, the recovery in headline GCB values from S$432 million in 2023 to S$587 million in 2024 to ~S$371 million in H2 2025 alone illustrates how lumpy this segment is. A single nine-figure trade (like the rumoured Peirce Road deal) can change the picture for an entire half-year. Without that single deal, the H1 2026 run-rate could look materially weaker. Bears would also note that the S$6,613 psf peak set in Q2 2025 has not been broken in nearly four quarters — consistent with a market that has found a ceiling for foreseeable demand even at the trophy tier. Until either ABSD is recalibrated (no indication this is being considered through May 2026) or a major new ultra-luxury supply event injects fresh liquidity, the segment may have already settled into its new equilibrium — high prices but structurally thin volumes (as of 2026-05).
Frequently asked questions
What does the Q2 2026 ultra-luxury market look like through May 2026?
Through May 2026, the segment shows tentative signs of normalisation rather than a breakout. Q1 2026 closed with the CCR price index up +0.6% qoq (revised from +0.4% flash) after a -3.5% Q4 2025, alongside a 39.7% drop in total private residential transactions to approximately 4,041 units. GCB activity remained steady, with a Peirce Road transaction reportedly near S$148 million in process — a potential signal that trophy-tier conviction has returned. For the quarter to confirm a turn, S$10M+ CCR condo caveats need to deliver 5–8 deals per month through April–June 2026 (as of 2026-05).
How does Q1 2026 CCR price performance compare to other segments?
Q1 2026 was unusually segmented. The Outside Central Region (OCR) led at +2.2% qoq (revised sharply up from +1.3% flash), driven by strong new-launch absorption. The Rest of Central Region (RCR) added +0.8% (revised slightly down from +0.9%). The CCR — the prime/luxury segment — managed +0.6% (revised up from +0.4%), a recovery from -3.5% in Q4 2025 but still the weakest of the three. This is the sixth consecutive quarter of overall private price growth per URA (as of 2026-04).
Is the 60% ABSD likely to be reduced in 2026?
Through May 2026, there are no government statements indicating any near-term recalibration of the 60% foreign-buyer ABSD rate. The April 2023 measure has now been in place for over three years and has demonstrably achieved its objective of suppressing speculative foreign demand — foreign share of CCR transactions remains roughly half its pre-hike level. Any future revision would likely be linked to broader policy review cycles rather than market lobbying. Buyers should plan as though the 60% rate is permanent (as of 2026-05).
Can a Singapore family office under Section 13O or 13U acquire residential property?
The 13O/13U tax exemption specifically excludes Singapore residential property from the definition of “designated investments” eligible for the tax incentive. This means a family office vehicle cannot directly hold residential property and still qualify for the tax exemption on its other investment income. However, the principals behind these structures often acquire trophy GCBs or luxury condos in their personal capacity as Singapore Citizens or Permanent Residents, where ABSD on second-and-beyond properties is 20%–35% rather than the 60% foreign rate. The family office property strategy guide covers the structures in detail (as of 2026-05).
What was the largest GCB deal of H2 2025 and what does it signal for Q2 2026?
The top H2 2025 GCB caveat was a S$55 million Chee Hoon Avenue bungalow in August 2025, with a separately reported Second Avenue trade at S$53 million in September. H2 2025 total caveated GCB value was approximately S$371 million across 13 deals. The most consequential ongoing transaction is a Peirce Road GCB reportedly in process near S$148 million — if it caveats in Q2 2026, it will be the largest single GCB trade since the 2021–2022 peak and a strong signal that the deepest pockets of Singapore UHNW wealth remain active. Monitor SLA records for confirmation (as of 2026-05).
Why are transaction volumes dropping while prices keep rising?
The Q1 2026 pattern — 39.7% qoq drop in transactions yet +0.9% price index gain — reflects a market in which holders are not distressed but buyers are highly selective. Two structural forces support this: first, low household leverage at the high end means few forced sellers; second, the MAS TDSR framework limits new buyer leverage, slowing the speed at which marginal buyers can enter. The risk for Q2 2026 is that thin volumes mean each individual transaction carries disproportionate weight in the price index, which could mask underlying weakness. Always validate aggregate signals with asset-level analysis via the ROI calculator (as of 2026-05).
What is the minimum lot size and approval framework for a GCB?
URA planning guidelines specify a minimum land area of 1,400 sqm (approximately 15,070 sqft) and a minimum plot width of 18.5 metres, with maximum site coverage of 35% for the main building and maximum GFA the lower of 1,600 sqm or 70% of site area. The site must be located within one of the 39 gazetted GCB areas. Subdivision of GCB lots to below 1,400 sqm is not permitted. Foreign individuals and most entities are prohibited from acquiring GCBs without specific approval from the Singapore Land Authority under the Residential Property Act. Verify the exact parameters of any specific site on URA SPACE or the Master Plan map before transacting (as of 2026-05).