New Launch Advisor

Which new launch project fits your goals?

1 Project
2 Buyer
3 Purpose
4 Financing

项目详情

输入您正在评估的新启动项目详细信息。

买家简介

您的个人资料会影响印花税和贷款资格。

购买目的

这有助于我们定制成本和收入分析。

融资详情

您的收入决定了 TDSR 规则下的贷款资格。

购买总结

如何使用新启动顾问

要点

  • 该顾问会询问一些简短的问题并返回个性化的建议。
  • 所有计算都在您的浏览器中运行 - 不会存储数据或将数据发送给第三方。
  • 使用不同的输入重新运行顾问程序以并排比较场景。

它的作用

The New Launch Advisor evaluates a specific new launch project against its surrounding resale market context, providing a structured view of whether the new launch is priced fairly, expensively, or cheaply relative to what comparable completed developments in the same district are actually transacting at. You select a new launch project from ShiokNest's URA pipeline database, choose a bedroom type and unit size, and the advisor fetches the developer's indicative price per square foot and compares it against: the median resale PSF for equivalent bedroom types in the same district over the past 12 months, the typical new-launch premium in the same market segment (CCR/RCR/OCR), the development's projected TOP date and the expected sub-sale market at that point, and the gross yield the unit would need to achieve to break even on the new-launch premium after 5 years versus buying resale today.

You can find the New Launch Advisor on ShiokNest under the Advisor tab — or access it directly from any new launch project page on the New Launches tab. The advisor output includes a "new launch premium score" — a 1–5 rating from "strongly underpriced" to "strongly overpriced" relative to resale — and a break-even analysis showing how much resale prices in the same district would need to appreciate over the next 3–5 years for the new launch to deliver equivalent returns to a resale purchase today. The advisor uses live ShiokNest transaction data and is refreshed monthly as new URA price data is published.

为什么它很重要

Developer pricing for new launches in Singapore is not directly transparent — the price list exists, but whether that price represents fair value relative to the surrounding market is not shown on any listing portal. Agents present new launches with reference to the developer's own psf comparisons (which naturally favour the new launch) rather than against impartial resale transaction data. The New Launch Advisor uses the same URA transaction dataset that powers ShiokNest's resale price charts to give a direct, comparable answer: "this new launch is asking X% above the 12-month median for the same bedroom type in the same district." That gap is the new-launch premium — and knowing whether it is above or below the historical average for that segment is the most important data point a new launch buyer can have.

The break-even analysis is the most financially consequential output. If a new launch in D19 is asking $2,100 PSF against a D19 resale median of $1,720 PSF (a 22% premium), a buyer needs D19 resale prices to rise from $1,720 to $2,100 for the new launch purchase to achieve PSF parity at resale. At the historical D19 appreciation rate of ~3.5% per annum, that requires approximately 6 years. If the buyer's expected holding period is 5 years, the new launch buyer may sell at a loss relative to a resale buyer who purchased at today's resale median. The break-even chart makes this timeline explicit — showing the year at which the new launch investment "catches up" to the equivalent resale investment under different assumed appreciation scenarios.

The sub-sale market risk is a dimension of new launch investment that the advisor specifically models. Between purchase and TOP (typically 3–5 years), new launch owners who need to exit can only do so through the sub-sale market — and sub-sale buyers apply a discount to new-launch prices because they are buying a development under construction with no physical inspection possible. During market downturns, sub-sale prices can be 8–15% below the developer's original pricing. For buyers who have a known exit event within the TOP window (relocation, business need, lifestyle change), the advisor flags this sub-sale risk explicitly and shows the price range at which sub-sales in comparable developments have cleared in recent quarters.

For investor-buyers, the yield-to-break-even calculation surfaces a trade-off that is rarely presented in developer marketing. A buyer paying a 20% new-launch premium who then rents the unit at market rates is earning a yield on the new-launch price — not the resale price. If the market rent supports 3.8% yield on the resale PSF but only 3.2% yield on the new-launch PSF (because the denominator is 20% higher), the investor is accepting 0.6% lower yield in exchange for the new-launch premium. Over 5 years at 75% LTV financing, that 0.6% yield compression represents approximately $45,000–$60,000 in foregone rental income relative to buying resale at the same total cost. Use this alongside the New Launch vs Resale Insight for the broader market-segment premium context, and the Cash Flow Calculator to model the full rental economics.

它是如何运作的

  • 诚实地回答每个问题——建议的好坏取决于输入的好坏。
  • 查看加权分数细分,了解每个选项排名的原因。
  • 单击链接的计算器或见解,深入挖掘任何单个因素。
  • 使用不同的输入重新运行,以查看建议对每个答案的敏感程度。

示例

OCR new launch 2BR at $2,100 PSF: is the premium justified?

输入
Project
New OCR launch, D19, expected TOP 2028
Bedroom type
2-bedroom, ~700 sqft
Developer asking
$2,100 PSF ($1,470,000 unit price)
Comparison metric
D19 resale median 2BR PSF (12-month, URA data)
结果
D19 resale 2BR median PSF
$1,720
New launch premium
+$380 PSF (+22.1%)
Historical OCR premium avg
~10% (2015–2020)
Premium score
4/5 — Overpriced relative to resale
Break-even year (at 3.5% pa appreciation)
~2033 (7 years from launch)

如何阅读此内容: At 22% above the D19 resale median, this new launch is pricing at double the historical OCR new-launch premium. For a buyer with a 5-year hold horizon (sell ~2029/2030), the break-even analysis shows resale prices would need to reach $2,100 PSF by then — requiring approximately 5.5% per annum appreciation from the current $1,720 resale median, which is above D19's historical average of 3.5%. The advisor rates this as overpriced (4/5) but notes that if the buyer holds 7+ years, the break-even converges under a base-case scenario. For an investor with a 5-year mandate and yield focus, the $2,100 PSF price only supports a 3.1% gross yield at current D19 market rents — versus 3.8% available from resale purchases today.

RCR new launch at moderate premium: break-even analysis for upgrader

输入
Project
RCR new launch, D12, expected TOP 2027
Bedroom type
3-bedroom, ~1,100 sqft
Developer asking
$2,350 PSF ($2,585,000 unit price)
D12 resale median (3BR)
$2,100 PSF
结果
New launch premium
+$250 PSF (+11.9%)
Premium score
2/5 — Moderately priced (near historical RCR average)
Break-even year (3.5% pa)
~2030 (4.5 years from launch)
Sub-sale risk
Low — RCR sub-sale market typically clears at 3–8% below developer price

如何阅读此内容: At 11.9% above resale median, this D12 RCR new launch is priced near the historical RCR average premium — neither cheap nor expensive relative to history. For an upgrader planning to owner-occupy from TOP (2027) and hold 7–10 years, the premium is within the normal range and the 4.5-year break-even is achievable. For an investor, the 3BR at $2,585,000 yields approximately 3.2% gross at current D12 3BR market rents ($6,900/month) — competitive for RCR, making this a viable income investment alongside the capital appreciation thesis. The moderate premium score (2/5) means the buyer is not overpaying significantly for the new-development benefit — unlike the D19 example above.

提示和陷阱

专家提示

  • 运行顾问程序两次 - 一次使用最佳情况假设,一次使用最坏情况假设 - 以查看全部结果。
  • 将建议与下面的相关计算器配对,了解美元级别的详细信息。
  • 在做出重大承诺之前,与您的配偶或财务规划师分享结果。

常见陷阱

  • 将分数视为预测——它是一个决策框架,而不是预测。
  • 忽略模型之外的因素——学区、家庭计划和生活方式的适合度在这里不予评分。
  • 过度重视单个输入——改变一个答案,看看分数变化了多少,然后再相信它。

常见问题解答

我的数据保存了吗?
不会。所有 Advisor 计算完全在您的浏览器中运行。我们的服务器上不会存储任何内容或与第三方共享任何内容。
推荐的准确性如何?
该顾问使用基于行业标准启发法的透明加权评分。这是一个决策支持工具,而不是财务建议——请务必与有执照的专业人士核实。
我可以保存我的结果吗?
登录以将场景保存到仪表板,或使用共享按钮复制对您的答案进行编码的 URL。
免责声明: 该顾问是决策支持工具,并非财务、法律或税务建议。在进行房产交易之前,请务必与有执照的专业人士核实结果。